On the last meaningful play of the Arizona Cardinals’ Week 16 matchup with the Chicago Bears, Kyler Murray reared back and launched a ball deep down the right sideline. It landed like so many of his deep balls did last year — helplessly incomplete, too far to give Greg Dortch a chance.
Earlier in that same quarter, Murray had Michael Wilson open for a touchdown but underthrew him by five yards. The previous week against the San Francisco 49ers was the same story. Two key deep shots, two key incompletions. Over their final two games, the Cardinals barely even tried. Murray’s only deep pass in those games was an underthrown incompletion to Trey McBride.
For the Cardinals, this was both a crucial trend in 2023 and a crucial problem to solve as their 2024 season gets underway.
Over his first three years in the league, Murray completed 43.6% of his deep passes — defined as those thrown at least 20 yards downfield. He averaged 15.0 yards per attempt on those plays, with 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Over his past two seasons, Murray has completed just 28.2% of his deep passes. He’s averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, with two touchdowns and seven interceptions.
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That chasm is the difference between being one of the best deep ball throwers in the NFL or one of the worst. Where Murray regularly ranked among passers like Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert, he’s recently placed alongside players like Zach Wilson and Bryce Young.
But entering 2024, there’s plenty of reason to believe Murray could return to old form — an optimism largely rooted in his receiving corps. In his first three seasons, he was throwing to either Larry Fitzgerald or DeAndre Hopkins in every single game. Over the past two years, he played four games with Hopkins. The rest featured a receiving group without a true No. 1 who could win downfield.
Those circ*mstances would impact any quarterback. Last year, even Patrick Mahomes struggled downfield as the Kansas City Chiefs surrounded him with an abysmal receiving corps. On downfield passes, he had one touchdown and six interceptions. Before last year, he had 51 touchdowns and 12 interceptions on those plays — an even starker difference than Murray’s drop-off.
Now, Murray will be throwing to Marvin Harrison Jr., who was selected fourth overall in large part because of his ability to dominate downfield. At Ohio State in 2023, he averaged an absurd 24.9 yards per target on deep passes. That was the top mark in the country last season and the best in the Big Ten since Pro Football Focus data began in 2014.
Naturally, this is where offensive coordinator Drew Petzing begins with Murray.
“We've gotta get people open for him,” Petzing said. “I think that's the easy answer. … I still feel very confident about his ability (downfield), the personnel we have to utilize that. So it's not something I'm particularly worried about.”
In training camp, the Cardinals displayed what that could look like. Murray’s connection with Harrison downfield was a clear focus early and often. When Harrison was covered, Murray showed a rapport with second-year receiver Michael Wilson, who profiles as a downfield threat given his athletic profile. With those weapons to throw to, Murray emerged as one of the Cardinals’ standout performers.
Petzing also sees Murray’s downfield passing as part of a larger picture. If he can take what’s open to him underneath, it’ll force defenses out of the type of two-high coverages that can mitigate deep passing.
“When we're right and we call the perfect play, take advantage,” Petzing said. “But I'm not going to every time, that's reality. And when I don't, finding the quickest completion, getting out of negative plays, creating a plus-four yard gain when I called a minus-two yard play is a big part of playing the quarterback position at a high level.”
Murray, meanwhile, points to a simpler explanation for why this season could be different.
“(Shoot), just being out there dog,” Murray said. “I feel like if I'm out there every game, sky's the limit.”
Plus, this type of adversity is something he’s grown to appreciate.
Five years ago, he entered the league with a peerless record of winning. He went 42-0 in high school, then 24-5 in college. As a rookie, he admits he was “miserable after losses” given how unaccustomed he was to the concept. Now, he understands that struggles can lead to growth, as long as they happen in moderation.
“You gotta fail,” Murray said. “You gotta fail. All those are lessons that I've taken in.”
The reality, though, is that this is a particularly crucial year for the Cardinals’ offense, even if Murray sees every year that way. Their quarterback is fully healthy, two years removed from his torn ACL. The coaching staff has spent 18 months gelling. The weapons are Arizona’s best in years.
There is no singular way to make sure the Cardinals offense comes through on that promise. But their quarterback rediscovering the form that once placed him among the NFL’s most feared deep ball passers would be a good place to start.
